RAHIL DADASHLI
PhD Candidate in Political Sciences,
Khazar University
THE FUTURE OF THE EASTERN PARTNERSHIP IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS:
SCENARIOS AND IMPLICATIONS FOR AZERBAIJAN, GEORGIA,
ARMENIA, AND THE EU
DOI: https://doi.org/10.36719/2708-065X/112/161-168
The Eastern Partnership (EaP), launched in 2009 to strengthen political association and economic integration between the European Union and its eastern neighbours, has undergone significant transformation amid shifting geopolitical realities in the South Caucasus. This paper examines the evolving trajectory of the EaP and its implications for Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia within the context of declining Russian influence, EU enlargement fatigue, regional conflicts, and emerging multipolar competition. After outlining the historical development and institutional architecture of the EaP, the study evaluates the divergent paths taken by the three South Caucasus states and assesses the program’s current effectiveness. It then presents three future scenarios-complete cessation, continuation of the status quo, and comprehensive reform-and analyses their political, economic, and security consequences for the region and the EU. The findings suggest that while the EaP faces structural limitations and geopolitical constraints, a reformed and upgraded framework offers the most viable pathway for strengthening resilience, supporting democratic transformation, and enhancing regional stability. The paper concludes that differentiated engagement, strategic investment, and a renewed vision are essential for sustaining EU relevance and fostering long‑term cooperation in the South Caucasus.
Keywords: South Caucasus, European Union, geopolitical competition, regional stability, EU integration.